The 3 Most Important Factors Affecting Mortgage Rates in 2023

Whether you’re an investor, a current homeowner, or someone considering entering the housing market, mortgage rates are likely a topic of great interest to you. In 2023, these rates are influenced by a variety of factors, from inflation and Federal Reserve decisions to the state of the economy and even trends in global finance. 

This guide aims to break down these complex elements, giving you the information you need to make smart choices about your home financing options in 2023.

What Are Mortgage Rates?

Before we get into the nitty-gritty details, let’s cover the basics. What exactly are mortgage rates? They aren’t just random numbers pulled out of a hat. They’re carefully calculated based on a variety of factors, such as the state of the economy and your personal financial history.

A mortgage rate is the interest you’re charged for borrowing money to buy a home. This rate is expressed as a yearly percentage. A lower rate is generally a good thing because it means you’ll pay less interest over the life of your loan. For example, if you borrow $300,000 to buy a house and your rate is 4%, you could end up paying around $215,000 just in interest over 30 years.

On the other hand, a higher rate means you’ll pay more in interest, both monthly and over the life of the loan. This could make it harder to budget for other things, like home improvements, vacations, or retirement savings.

High Inflation: The Number One Culprit

Inflation is essentially the rate at which the cost of goods and services increases over time. When inflation rises, the value of money—what you can actually buy with a dollar—goes down. In 2023, we’ve seen an unusually high inflation rate, which has led to some significant actions by financial institutions, particularly the Federal Reserve.

The Fed has been in one of its steepest hiking cycles in four decades, raising rates by 525 basis points since March 2022. This has brought the target rate range to 5.25-5.5%, making borrowing more expensive and impacting mortgage rates. However, this cycle is nearing its end, and we could see the Fed hold rates steady through the middle of next year, especially if inflation continues to decline.

So, if you’re looking to buy a house or refinance your existing mortgage, you’ll find that it’s now more expensive to borrow money, but hanging in there for a few more months could see rates ease.

Mortgage-Backed Securities

Picture a type of investment similar to stocks, but it’s made up of groups of home loans. These are called Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Making money from MBS is a balancing act for banks and other lenders.

When a lot of investors want to buy these MBS, lenders make more money from selling them. This allows lenders to offer lower mortgage rates to homebuyers. Conversely, if there’s less demand for MBS, lenders don’t make as much money when they sell them. To make up for this, they might increase mortgage rates.

So far this year, the issuance of global MBS has reached a 23-year low, standing at $100 billion in the first four months, according to Refinitiv data. This decline has tightened credit availability for borrowers, making it more challenging for homeowners and property developers to secure financing, thereby contributing to higher mortgage rates.

The Interplay Between Economic Growth and Mortgage Rates

A healthy economy often signals higher mortgage rates, and the data from 2023 provides a compelling backdrop to understand this relationship. A recent analysis by JP Morgan showed that the U.S. economy has been outperforming expectations, with real GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 2.0% to 2.4% in the first half of the year. 

This growth is expected to continue at a 2% pace for the second half of 2023 and slow down to 0.5% for the first half of 2024. In such an environment, consumer spending, which accounts for 65% of the GDP, has been resilient.

This positive economic landscape tends to boost consumer confidence, increasing demand for homes. When the economy is robust, lenders may take the opportunity to raise mortgage rates. However, there’s a flip side. If economic growth slows, as projected by early next year, lenders might lower mortgage rates to encourage borrowing and stimulate the housing market.

Navigating High Mortgage Rates: Strategies for Potential Homebuyers

Once you have a grasp on what influences mortgage rates, the next step is to develop a game plan for securing the best possible rate for your home loan. Here are some strategies you can employ to navigate a high-rate environment successfully.

Explore Multiple Lenders

Don’t settle for the first rate offered to you. According to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), failing to shop around could cost you much more in the long run. Some lenders might offer rates that are significantly lower than others, sometimes by as much as half a percentage point. By comparing multiple offers, you put yourself in a better position to negotiate and potentially save thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.

Make a Larger Down Payment

If you can afford it, consider making a larger down payment. Doing so reduces the amount you need to borrow, and this lower loan amount can often secure you a more favorable interest rate. A substantial down payment also signals to the lender that you are a less risky borrower, which might make them more inclined to offer you a lower rate.

Evaluate Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs)

While fixed-rate mortgages provide the security of a constant interest rate over the life of the loan, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can offer a lower initial rate. This could be particularly useful in an environment where rates are expected to drop in the future. 

However, knowing that the rate can also increase, affecting your monthly payments, is crucial. Ensure you understand how ARMs work, including how and when the rate and payments could change, to assess whether this option aligns with your financial comfort and long-term goals.

By implementing these strategies, you’ll be better equipped to navigate the complexities of mortgage rates, allowing you to make informed decisions that benefit your financial future.

The Bottom Line

Navigating the housing market in 2023 requires a keen understanding of the multifaceted factors that influence mortgage rates. From domestic economic performance and Federal Reserve actions to global economic shifts, the landscape is complex and dynamic. 

By staying informed and strategically applying the insights provided in this guide, you’re well-positioned to make well-timed and financially sound decisions. 

Whether a first-time homebuyer or an experienced investor, knowledge remains your most valuable asset in this ever-changing dance between mortgage rates and the real estate market.

FAQs

Why are mortgage rates exceptionally high in 2023?

Several key factors are driving up mortgage rates in 2023. These include a high inflation rate, changing Federal Reserve policies, and decreased demand for Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS).

How do decisions by the Federal Reserve affect mortgage rates?

The Federal Reserve has been in a hiking cycle, raising interest rates to combat inflation. These hikes increase the cost of borrowing for mortgage lenders, who often pass on these costs to borrowers through higher mortgage rates

What role do Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) play in mortgage rate determination?

Mortgage-backed securities are financial assets that are traded much like stocks. Banks can afford to offer lower mortgage rates when demand for these securities is high. Conversely, banks may raise mortgage rates when demand is low to maintain profitability.

What are the risks of refinancing when mortgage rates are low?

Refinancing at a lower rate can benefit borrowers but pose a risk for lenders, who may lose out on future interest earnings. To mitigate this risk, lenders may preemptively increase mortgage rates.

How do global events impact mortgage rates?

Global events can cause shifts in investor confidence and affect the demand for various investment vehicles, including bonds and Mortgage-Backed Securities. These shifts can, in turn, influence mortgage rates, making an understanding of global events crucial for anyone monitoring mortgage rates.